on GBTC flows

GBTC was an ugly big bad wolf for a while. Huuuuge outflows. People terrified in the streets. $36bn of bitcoin supply entering the market. Then the price didnt collapse like they thought it would, and people decided to normalise the huge outflows, it was just something that happened, it did not impact price.

However…

People *guessing here, based on my various interactions on social media* did not understand the flows, or that they were were bidirectional. Money was flowing out of gbtc into ibit. (Read this if you do not get why or how or whatever, but tl;dr is people didnt wanna pay 1.5% gbtc fee)

As one goes down, the other goes up.

Now, if flows out of gbtc have stopped (gbtc is recording multiple positive inflow days) What does this mean for the flows into other BTC ETFs?

There is currently still positive flow to the other ETFs, even when GBTC is also achieving positive flows. However, this has come during a pretty volatile time for bitcoin with alot of bullish excitement on the concept of the ETH ETF passing. I think the next few weeks will be the most important days in BTC ETF flow history. We will finally get to see the unadulterated flow information, now that the money that wanted to get out of GBTC into other ETF products has done so.

My personal guess is people mentally blocked GBTC outflows, focused solely on other ETF inflows, and now that the GBTC spigot is turned off will be somewhat shocked by how inflows are decreasing in strength and stature. This may have a short term negative impact on sentiment. aaand we all know how self fulfilling prophecies work.